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If you told me five weeks ago that Kyle Boller's first month as an NFL starter would conclude with him completing just 52.3 percent of his passes, with two touchdowns, six interceptions and a lowly 46.8 passer rating, I probably would have nodded knowingly and began ruminating on the well-known hazards of starting a rookie at the game's most pivotal position.
But if you told me that entering Week 6, Baltimore, with a modest 2-2 record, would still be in first place in their division despite the dips and climbs in Boller's early learning curve, and that the Ravens' proven formula of winning with stout defense, a Jamal Lewis-led running game and solid special teams would be fairly well in place, I might have double-clutched on the old instant analysis.
It has been noted that you can make numbers say almost anything you want, and Boller's case may be the best current example of that old adage. Is his middling production proof that the Ravens would have been better off with him sitting and watching at season's start? Or is the glass half full, with Baltimore one month closer to having developed its quarterback of the future, without wholly sacrificing its 2003 season in the process? NFL Tickets
See, it depends on which numbers you choose to emphasize.
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Ultimately, the ones that matter most in the NFL are these: With Boller under
center, the Ravens lost handily to Pittsburgh, beat Cleveland and San Diego
and lost narrowly to Kansas City. That's two hits and two misses, which balances
out to a half-game better than second-place Pittsburgh and Cleveland (both 2-3)
in the lackluster AFC North. Not all that great, but far from the rookie-quarterback
train wreck that some might have feared.
And this point bears repeating: The Ravens, unlike most teams that close their eyes and toss the keys to first-year quarterbacks, are trying to have their cake and eat it too this season. They want to win games and contend for the playoffs while still developing Boller at the same time. There has not been comparable pressures on recent rookie starters in locales such as Detroit, Houston, Cleveland or Dallas. NFL Tickets
"It's the quarter point of our season, so you have to qualify it,'' Ravens head coach Brian Billick said last weekend, during Baltimore's bye. "But at the quarter mark, I'm in first place, with a top 10 defense, a No. 1-ranked rushing offense, and a top special teams. How bad does that sound? It sounds pretty good. Now check with me again at the halfway mark and we'll see where we're at.
"If there's a frustration by anybody around here it would be, 'Geez, if we just had a top-rate veteran quarterback we could be a Super Bowl team.' There might be that. But that wasn't the reality that we dealing with.''
Translated that means the Ravens were probably looking at a 2-2 getaway whether they started Boller or stuck with fourth-year veteran Chris Redman -- who began the preseason as the lightly experienced incumbent -- so why not get Boller's growing pains out of the way sooner than later? NFL Tickets
It's a risky philosophy, but I think the Ravens are correct in plowing ahead with it, painful as it may be at times. True, Boller's three interceptions played a significant role in Baltimore's Week 4 home loss to Kansas City, which kept the Ravens from starting 3-1 and taking command in the AFC North, but step back a moment and look at the bigger picture. Despite Boller's mistakes, Baltimore played powerful Kansas City to a 10-10 tie, before Dante Hall's fourth-quarter kickoff return settled the outcome.
Had the Ravens special teams won that game, and Baltimore stood 3-1 today, would we be regarding the Ravens' Boller experiment as a clear-cut success rather than the so-so endeavor it appears? You have to wonder.
"Any time you talk about a rookie quarterback you can't bail at the first sight of difficulty, and there's going to be continual difficulties,'' Billick said. "But based on what I've seen, based on the assets I know this team has, and the way I know this guy's going to progress, the fact that we're going to be together for a number of years to come, because of where we are contract-wise with a number of our guys, there's no question in my mind that this guy is our future quarterback. And he's going to be the guy who's going to bring to fruition all the things that we think we're capable of doing. NFL Tickets
"I'm very encouraged. Whatever the expectations were, being 2-2 at the quarter mark, and being a kickoff return away from beating one of the NFL's elite teams -- and Kyle doesn't cover kicks -- I think he feels good about it and I think this team feels good about it.''
Billick's windy ways aside, here's what the Ravens should feel even better about: With their next four games at Arizona, at Cincinnati, and home against Denver and Jacksonville, they could find themselves in much better position at the halfway mark than they were at the quarter pole. The Cardinals, Bengals and Jaguars have just one win apiece, and the Ravens have always played the Broncos tough, beating them in their last three meetings.
It's not unreasonable to see Baltimore arriving at midseason at 5-3, halfway home to a playoff berth. If things fall just right and Boller begins to make teams start respecting the Ravens passing game, even a 6-2 record at the turn may be within reach. At that point, we presume, Billick would have nothing left to defend in regards to his Boller starting decision. NFL Tickets
"If we can get to midseason at 5-3, and now this guy has survived the first half of the season and made the improvements that I know he'll make, we're in pretty good shape,'' Billick said. "If we're 6-2, Katy bar the door.
"That's awfully ambitious, and we might get our butts kicked. But if we are that well off at midseason, with our record in November and December -- which is the third best in the league over the past four years -- with a young quarterback who has a half season of reps, that's beginning to see things better, that could get kind of exciting.''
Watching Boller so far, what I see is a young quarterback who could use a difference-maker emerging from a very average group of receivers. What Jimmy Smith did for Jacksonville's Byron Leftwich on Sunday, or Andre Johnson has done for Houston's David Carr all season, Boller clearly lacks in throwing to the likes of Marcus Robinson, Travis Taylor and Frank Sanders. Only Pro Bowl tight end Todd Heap is a dependable target, and rest assured defenses are well aware of that.
The Ravens, perhaps wary that Boller can't handle the progressions necessary in the intermediate routes, seemingly have all but eliminated them from their game plans. They have shrunk their playbook to the point where Boller is being asked to either make quick, decisive reads and safe, short throws, or take a shot at the down-the-field low-percentage bomb. Opposing teams seem aware of their lack of having to defend the intermediate route and have hung back in the secondary, turning those deep patterns into a series of risky jump balls.
That's a trend that must change if the Ravens offense has any hope of riding Lewis, the NFL's leading rusher, all the way to the playoffs. The more defenses can shorten the field against Baltimore, which is averaging a league-best 196.3 rushing yards per game, the easier it will be to eventually gang up and stop Lewis. Boller and the Ravens passing game must make defenses keep their distance.
"Kyle surely would like to throw the ball more, but he understands who the bell cow on this team is,'' Billick said, referring to Lewis. "Even though the numbers don't look very good, I'm very comfortable thus far with his decision-making process.''
So far, that seems to be as keen a take as any on the Kyle Boller era in Baltimore. The early season numbers don't look all that good, but the decision still does.